The Middle East is edging ever closer toward a full-blown regional war as Israel vowed to respond to Iran’s huge barrage of ballistic missiles fired at the country on Tuesday night, capping a day of dramatic military escalation in the region.
“Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said hours after the unprecedented attack.
Iran launched a salvo of about 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli military targets, its largest ever such attack, sending sirens blaring across Israel and activating the country’s sophisticated defensive systems.
Iran’s leadership said the attack was intended as a warning to Israel not to enter a direct war with its longtime enemy, and any Israeli response to the barrage would be met with “stronger and more painful” blows.
The escalation came about 24 hours after Israel launched a ground war in Lebanon to go after Hezbollah, a powerful militant group that is backed by Iran, and days after Israel killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah in a strike on Beirut.
Regional conflict intensifies
The attack on Tuesday has further altered the nature of the fight, turning it from a battle involving Iran’s proxies into a direct clash between the two strongest militaries in the region.
Several Iranian missiles hit Israeli military bases during the operation, an Israeli military source told CNN, but they said there was no significant damage to the infrastructure.
Although this year has seen two instances of Iranian aircraft attacks on Israel, the one that occurred on Tuesday was more intense.
In April, Iran conducted a large-scale drone and missile attack at Israel – the first such direct assault on the country from its own – in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.
Iran gave 72 hours notice ahead of that attack, which was widely seen as designed to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle with almost all of the 300 projectiles knocked out of the sky by Israel’s defense systems.
Israel responded a week later with a limited strike on Iran.
This time, Israel learned about the imminent threat just hours before Tehran launched the strikes, with targets including the headquarters of Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, in Tel Aviv, Israel’s second largest city, Nevatim Air Base and Tel Nof Air Base.
Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Iran’s Tuesday barrage was twice as large as the April attack. It also included many more ballistic missiles, which are harder to shoot down, posing a real threat to Israeli citizens – many of whom evacuated to shelters during the attack.
While the Israeli military said most of the missiles were intercepted, some landed on Israeli soil and appeared to cause damage. Shock waves caused by the attack also damaged homes in central Israel, authorities in the country said.
Has Middle Eastern diplomacy failed?
The truce and hostage talks between Hamas and Israel have failed, and diplomacy has not been able to bring Israel and Hezbollah together to make an agreement.
According to sources who spoke to CNN, up until a few weeks ago, some senior US officials secretly thought that Washington had effectively prevented a major Iranian attack against Israel through diplomatic and deterrent measures.
According to Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence analyst with expertise in the area, “I think Nasrallah was the final straw” for Iran.
The attack on Tuesday is arguably the strongest indication that a much-feared regional conflict may be set to break out because there is no escape route and Israel doesn’t seem ready to make concessions to its adversaries.
In the meantime, the US and Israel both downplayed how effective
In almost a year of war, increasing escalations have repeatedly brought the region to the edge of an all-out conflict.
In recent days, Israel’s ground incursion into southern Lebanon opened up a whole new front and it has ramped up attacks against other Iran-backed militants, including launching strikes targeting the Houthis in Yemen.
Israel has eliminated Hezbollah’s leadership with a series of attacks and massive airstrikes across Lebanon that have targeted the group’s infrastructure and capabilities, but which have also killed more than 1,000 people, displaced about 1 million, and destroyed homes and neighborhoods.